Asia’s Demographic Transition

John C. Caldwell and Bruce K. Caldwell

Asian Development Review (ADR), 1997, vol. 15, issue 01, 52-87

Abstract: At the end of the Second World War, it was uncertain whether Asia would follow Western countries in experiencing a demographic transition, due to its low per capita incomes, apart from Japan. Unexpectedly, most of Asia experienced unprecedented steep mortality declines from 1945 and accounted disproportionately for the so-called global “population explosion†. The movement toward long-term equilibrium began with fertility declines starting in the 1960s. These were produced by both socioeconomic change and strong national family planning programs. Population growth rates declined from 1970, and most of the increase now is taking place in urban areas. Demographic pressures on resources will be greatest in South Asia, which is likely to experience a further population increase of around 70 percent. The East Asian economic “meltdown†is unlikely to slow down the demographic transition. In some countries, notably Indonesia, mortality decline may decrease or temporarily cease, but fertility decline may accelerate.

Date: 1997
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DOI: 10.1142/S0116110597000031

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