Shifting Trade Winds: Southeast Asia’s Response to the United States–People’s Republic of China Trade Dispute

Sunghun Lim and Anh Phuoc Thien Nguyen ()
Additional contact information
Sunghun Lim: Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, Louisiana State University, Louisiana, United States
Anh Phuoc Thien Nguyen: Charles H. Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management, Cornell University, New York, United States

Asian Development Review (ADR), 2024, vol. 41, issue 02, 57-80

Abstract: This study delves into the trade dynamics of Southeast Asian countries in response to the trade dispute between the United States (US) and the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Our analysis uncovers diverse patterns of trade diversion effects among eight Southeast Asian countries, revealing significant disparities in their reactions to this trade dispute. Specifically, we observe Viet Nam’s substantial export growth to both the US and the PRC, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties and strategic relocations. Thailand, on the other hand, experiences positive effects on its exports to the US, potentially due to trade diversion, alongside diminishing exports to the PRC. Moreover, we find sector-specific trends, such as an upsurge in machinery exports from Viet Nam, Thailand, and Indonesia. In contrast, Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, and Singapore largely sustained their respective export levels to the US. Our findings highlight the importance of tailored trade policies that consider each Southeast Asian country’s unique industrial structure and degree of global value chain integration.

Keywords: ASEAN; Southeast Asia; trade diversion; US–PRC trade dispute (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F14 F15 O53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S0116110524400134
Open Access

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wsi:adrxxx:v:41:y:2024:i:02:n:s0116110524400134

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from

DOI: 10.1142/S0116110524400134

Access Statistics for this article

Asian Development Review (ADR) is currently edited by Tetsushi Sonobe

More articles in Asian Development Review (ADR) from World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Tai Tone Lim ().