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ESTIMATING THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON 16 MAJOR US FISHERIES

Chris Moore, James W. Morley, Brian Morrison, Michael Kolian, Eric Horsch, Thomas Frölicher, Malin L. Pinsky and Roger Griffis
Additional contact information
Chris Moore: National Center for Environmental Economics, United States Environmental Protection, Agency 1200 Pennsylvania Avenue NW (MC 1809T), Washington, DC 20460, USA
James W. Morley: Department of Biology, Coastal Studies Institute, East Carolina University, ECU Outer Banks Campus 850 NC 345, Wanchese, NC 27981, USA
Brian Morrison: Industrial Economics, Incorporated, 2067 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02140, USA
Michael Kolian: Office of Atmospheric Programs, United States Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Avenue NW (MC 6207A), Washington, DC 20460, USA
Eric Horsch: Industrial Economics, Incorporated, 2067 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02140, USA
Thomas Frölicher: Climate and Environmental Physics Division (CEP), Physics Institute, University of Bern Sidlerstrasse 5, 3012 Bern, Switzerland6Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern Hochschulstrasse 4, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
Malin L. Pinsky: Department of Ecology, Evolution and Natural Resources, School of Environmental and Biological Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901, USA
Roger Griffis: Office of Science and Technology, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), 1335 East-West Highway, Silver Spring, MD 20910, USA

Climate Change Economics (CCE), 2021, vol. 12, issue 01, 1-38

Abstract: Observational evidence shows marine species are shifting their geographic distribution in response to warming ocean temperatures. These shifts have implications for the US fisheries and seafood consumers. The analysis presented here employs a two-stage inverse demand model to estimate the consumer welfare impacts of projected increases or decreases in commercial landings for 16 US fisheries from 2021 to 2100, based on the predicted changes in thermally available habitat. The fisheries analyzed together account for 56% of the current US commercial fishing revenues. The analysis compares welfare impacts under two climate scenarios: a high emissions case that assumes limited efforts to reduce atmospheric greenhouse gas and a low emissions case that assumes more stringent mitigation. The present value of consumer surplus impacts when discounted at 3% is a net loss of $2.1 billion (2018 US$) in the low emissions case and $4.2 billion in the high emissions scenario. Projected annual losses reach $278–901 million by 2100.

Keywords: Commercial fisheries; marine species distribution; welfare impacts; climate change; warming ocean temperatures (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1142/S2010007821500020

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