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HOW MUCH COULD ARTICLE 6 ENHANCE NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION AMBITION TOWARD PARIS AGREEMENT GOALS THROUGH ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY?

James Edmonds, Sha Yu (), Haewon McJeon (), Dirk Forrister (), Joseph Aldy (), Nathan Hultman (), Ryna Cui (), Stephanie Waldhoff (), Leon Clarke (), Stefano de Clara and Clayton Munnings
Additional contact information
James Edmonds: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, P.O. Box 999, Richland, WA 99352, USA
Sha Yu: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, P.O. Box 999, Richland, WA 99352, USA
Haewon McJeon: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, P.O. Box 999, Richland, WA 99352, USA
Dirk Forrister: International Emissions Trading Association, 24, rue Merle d’Aubigné, CH-1207 Geneva, Switzerland
Joseph Aldy: Harvard Kennedy School, Harvard University, 79 John F. Kennedy Street, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA
Nathan Hultman: Center for Global Sustainability, School of Public Policy, University of Maryland, 3101 Van Munching Hall, College Park, MD 20742, USA
Ryna Cui: Center for Global Sustainability, School of Public Policy, University of Maryland, 3101 Van Munching Hall, College Park, MD 20742, USA
Stephanie Waldhoff: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, P.O. Box 999, Richland, WA 99352, USA
Leon Clarke: Center for Global Sustainability, School of Public Policy, University of Maryland, 3101 Van Munching Hall, College Park, MD 20742, USA
Stefano de Clara: International Emissions Trading Association, 24, rue Merle d’Aubigné, CH-1207 Geneva, Switzerland5Energy and Resources Group, University of California Berkeley, 310 Barrows Hall, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
Clayton Munnings: International Emissions Trading Association, 24, rue Merle d’Aubigné, CH-1207 Geneva, Switzerland5Energy and Resources Group, University of California Berkeley, 310 Barrows Hall, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA

Climate Change Economics (CCE), 2021, vol. 12, issue 02, 1-18

Abstract: The Paris Agreement of 2015 uses Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to achieve its goal to limit climate change to well below 2°C. Article 6 allows countries to cooperatively implement NDCs provided they do not double-count mitigation. We estimate that economic efficiency gains from cooperative implementation of existing NDC goals using Article 6 could reduce the cost of achieving NDC goals in 2030 to all parties by ∼$300×109, which if reinvested in additional emissions mitigation could add 9 billion tons CO2/year mitigation, beyond the 8 billion tons CO2/year currently pledged in 2030. We estimate that more than half of the 2030 gains could come from nature-based measures, but long-term potential for nature-based measures is more limited. How much or even if this economic potential can be realized is uncertain and will depend on both the rules and their implementation.

Keywords: Paris agreement; article 6; market mechanisms; emissions trading; enhanced ambition (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1142/S201000782150007X

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