THE REGIONAL ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FAMILY FARMING AND LARGE-SCALE AGRICULTURE IN BRAZIL: A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM APPROACH

Tarik Marques Do Prado Tanure, Edson Domingues and Aline DE SOUZA MAGALHÃES ()
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Tarik Marques Do Prado Tanure: Programa de Pós-Doutorado do Instituto de Economia e Relações Internacionais – IERI, Universidade Federal de Uberlândia – UFU, Avenida João Naves de à vila, 2121, 38408-144 Uberlândia, MG, Brazil2Núcleo de Estudos em Modelagem Econômica e Ambiental Aplicada - NEMEA, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais - UFMG, Av. Presidente Antônio Carlos, 6627, 31270-901 Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil
Aline DE SOUZA MAGALHÃES: Centro de Desenvolvimento e Planejamento Regional – CEDEPLAR, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais – UFMG, Av. Presidente Antônio Carlos, 6627, 31270-901 Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil

Climate Change Economics (CCE), 2023, vol. 14, issue 03, 1-33

Abstract: This paper analyzes the regional economic impacts of climate change (CC) on the agricultural productivity of crops linked to family farming and large-scale agriculture in Brazil. Variations in agricultural productivity estimated according to CC scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 [IPCC (2014). Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Core Writing Team, RK Pachauri and LA Meyer (eds.), IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 151pp.], between 2021 and 2050, were used as inputs in the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model AGRO-BR to project the economic impacts of the phenomenon. The model presents regional configuration composed of the 27 Brazilian Federation Units and 42 agricultural sectors, disaggregated into family farming and large-scale agriculture sectors. The results indicate that the North and Northeast regions would be negatively affected, Midwest and Southeast would suffer moderate impacts, while the South region would benefit mostly. São Paulo, Paraná, and Rio Grande do Sul would show economic growth, softening the negative impacts on national GDP. Regional disparities and the deterioration of food security conditions could increase in Brazil.

Keywords: Climate change; family farming; agricultural productivity; computable general equilibrium models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q12 R15 R22 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1142/S2010007823500124

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