CLIMATE SENSITIVITY OF ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION AND PEAK DEMAND IN INDIA: CASE OF HETEROGENEOUS CLIMATE ZONES

Divya Jain, Gopal K. Sarangi () and Sukanya Das ()
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Divya Jain: TERI School of Advanced Studies, 10, Institutional Area, Vasant Kunj, New Delhi 110070, India
Gopal K. Sarangi: TERI School of Advanced Studies, 10, Institutional Area, Vasant Kunj, New Delhi 110070, India
Sukanya Das: TERI School of Advanced Studies, 10, Institutional Area, Vasant Kunj, New Delhi 110070, India

Climate Change Economics (CCE), 2023, vol. 14, issue 03, 1-34

Abstract: Electricity demand is determined largely by regional climate conditions and seasonal characteristics, apart from a myriad of socio-economic and demographic factors. This paper investigates the climate sensitivity of electricity consumption and peak demand in six energy-intensive Indian states across heterogeneous climate zones using a non-parametric approach known as multivariate adaptive regression splines. The results show the highest temperature sensitivity of cooling electricity consumption in Punjab (8.2%), followed by Rajasthan (3.5%), Madhya Pradesh (3.1%), Tamil Nadu (2.3%), and Uttar Pradesh (1.2%). Among other climate variables, relative humidity has a non-linear impact on electricity consumption in the majority of states. The minimum temperature rise has a stronger influence on peak electricity demand than the maximum temperature in three states. Given that air-conditioning penetration is expected to increase in the future, this state-level analysis will help in developing accurate forecasts for electricity demand and formulating climate adaptation strategies for India.

Keywords: Climate variability; electricity demand; multivariate adaptive regression splines; India (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1142/S2010007823500136

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