DILEMMA OF CO2 MITIGATION: EFFECTS OF CLIMATE, CO2, AND TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS ON RICE YIELDS

Yu-Kai Huang, Bruce A. McCarl (), Chengcheng J. Fei (), Witsanu Attavanich (), Theepakorn Jithitikulchai () and Doo Bong Han ()
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Yu-Kai Huang: Institute for Sustainability, Energy, and Environment University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, IL, USA
Bruce A. McCarl: ��Department of Agricultural Economics Texas A&M University, TX, USA
Chengcheng J. Fei: ��Department of Agricultural Economics Texas A&M University, TX, USA
Witsanu Attavanich: ��Department of Economics, Kasetsart University Bangkok, Thailand
Theepakorn Jithitikulchai: �Department of Economics, Thammasat University Bangkok, Thailand
Doo Bong Han: �Korea Rural Economic Institute, Naju, South Korea

Climate Change Economics (CCE), 2025, vol. 16, issue 02, 1-19

Abstract: Rice feeds billions of populations, and its yields are sensitive to climate change, carbon dioxide (CO2), and technological progress. This study estimates a model of these effects using Asian rice yield data merged with free air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE) experimental data. A three-stage generalized least squares model is developed to quantify their effects on mean rice yields and their variance. The results show that CO2 concentration has significantly contributed to increased rice yields, accounting for 16–26% of observed yield growth over 1990–2015. This indicates that if significant CO2 mitigation occurs, the CO2 fertilization effect will diminish, inducing a yield reduction. This finding suggests that increased agricultural research and development investments are needed to overcome not only adverse climate change effects but also to counteract CO2 mitigation effects on rice yields.

Keywords: Rice yield; climate change; CO2 fertilization effect; gridded climate data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1142/S2010007825500071

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