China’s Industrialization and the Pathway of Industrial CO2 Emissions

Zi Chen (), Changyi Liu and Shenning Qu ()
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Zi Chen: Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Liangxiang College Park, Fangshan District, Beijing 102488, P. R. China
Changyi Liu: National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Zhongguancun Nandajie 46, Haidian District, Beijing 100081, P. R. China
Shenning Qu: Institute of Industrial Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Yuetan Beixiaojie 2, Xicheng District, Beijing 100836, P. R. China

Chinese Journal of Urban and Environmental Studies (CJUES), 2015, vol. 03, issue 03, 1-14

Abstract: Industrial sector is the largest CO2 emission sector in China, thus the peak of China’s total CO2 emissions relies heavily on its industrial sector. After rapid industrialization during the last three decades, China now is between the intermediate and the late industrialization stage in general. Looking at the production and emission structures of China’s industries, especially the heavy and chemical industrial sectors which are energy- and emission-intensive industries, we claim that the output of these heavy and chemical industries will peak at around 2020, the industrialization process will complete at around 2025 and after that, China will enter the post-industrialization era. According to the CO2 emission pathways of developed countries during their industrialization, i.e. the so-called “Carbon Kuznets Curve”, and based on the characteristics of China’s industrialization and urbanization process, it is estimated that the CO2 emissions from the industrial sector will keep rising over time and reach its peak at around the year 2040 in the business-as-usual scenario; while in the low-carbon scenario, it will peak between 2025 and 2030 and decline after the year 2040.

Keywords: Industrialization; CO2 emissions; China; Kuznets curve; prediction (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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DOI: 10.1142/S2345748115500190

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