Prediction of the Impacts of Climate Change on the Geographical Distribution of Dysentery in Iran

Giti Bahrami (), Homeira Sajadi (), Hassan Rafiee (), Mehdi Norouzi () and Alireza Shakiba
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Giti Bahrami: Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Alborz University of Medical Sciences, Karaj 3149779453, Iran
Homeira Sajadi: Department of Social Welfare Management, University of Social Welfare and Rehabilitation Sciences, Tehran 1985713834, Iran
Hassan Rafiee: Social Welfare Management Research Center, University of Social Welfare and Rehabilitation Sciences, Tehran 1985713834, Iran
Mehdi Norouzi: Social Determinants of Health Research Center, University of Social Welfare and Rehabilitation Sciences, Tehran 1985713834, Iran
Alireza Shakiba: Center for Remote Sensing & GIS Research, Faculty of Earth Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran 1983969411, Iran

Chinese Journal of Urban and Environmental Studies (CJUES), 2022, vol. 10, issue 03, 1-18

Abstract: Dysentery is a water- and food-borne infectious disease and its incidence is sensitive to climate change. Although the impact of climate change on dysentery is being studied in specific areas, a study in Iran is lacking. In this study, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios were used to predict the prevalence of dysentery in Iran between 2050 and 2070. This study is a secondary analysis using Geographically Weighted Regression, and 273 cities of Iran were analyzed between March 2011 and March 2017. Bioclimate variables were used as independent variables. Ecological data about the prevalence and incidence of dysentery, which were collected between 2011 and 2017, were used as the dependent variables. The result shows the incidence of dysentery is significantly associated with bioclimate change exposure, in 2050 and 2070, based on RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Our findings showed that in the absence of adaptation of the population, an increase in the risk of bioclimate-related diseases is expected by around 95.6% in the mid-century compared with the beginning of the century with regional variations. Based on these findings, the geographical distribution of the disease will also change. In 2050, the pattern of disease distribution would be changed, and the north of Iran will be included in the vulnerable regions. In 2070, the southeastern and northern parts of Iran will have the most vulnerability to climate change. Our study contributes important knowledge to this perspective by providing insightful findings and pieces of evidence for climate change adaptation and mitigation.

Keywords: Climate change; health; Geographically Weighted Regression; dysentery; gastrointestinal disease (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1142/S234574812250018X

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