DYNAMICAL ANALYSIS OF A NOVEL DISCRETE FRACTIONAL SITRS MODEL FOR COVID-19

Amr Elsonbaty, Zulqurnain Sabir, Rajagopalan Ramaswamy and Waleed Adel
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Amr Elsonbaty: Department of Mathematics, College of Science and Humanities in Al-Kharj, Prince Sattam bin Abdulaziz University, Al-Kharj 11942, Saudi Arabia†Department of Mathematics and Engineering Physics, Faculty of Engineering, Mansoura University, Egypt
Zulqurnain Sabir: ��Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Hazara University, Mansehra, Pakistan
Rajagopalan Ramaswamy: Department of Mathematics, College of Science and Humanities in Al-Kharj, Prince Sattam bin Abdulaziz University, Al-Kharj 11942, Saudi Arabia
Waleed Adel: ��Department of Mathematics and Engineering Physics, Faculty of Engineering, Mansoura University, Egypt

FRACTALS (fractals), 2021, vol. 29, issue 08, 1-15

Abstract: In this paper, a discrete fractional Susceptible-Infected-Treatment-Recovered-Susceptible (SITRS) model for simulating the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic is presented. The model is a modification to a recent continuous-time SITR model by taking into account the possibility that people who have been infected before can lose their temporary immunity and get reinfected. Moreover, a modification is suggested in the present model to correct the improper assumption that the infection rates of both normal susceptible and old aged/seriously diseased people are equal. This modification complies with experimental data. The equilibrium points for the proposed model are found and results of thorough stability analysis are discussed. A full numerical simulation is carried out and gives a better analysis of the disease spread, influences of model’s parameters, and how to control the virus. Comparisons with clinical data are also provided.

Keywords: Caputo Fractional Difference; SITRS Model; Epidemics; Stability Analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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DOI: 10.1142/S0218348X21400351

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