DYNAMIC NONLINEAR DIFFERENTIAL INVESTMENT DECISION MODEL FOR SCENIC SPOT SYSTEM WITH UNCERTAINTIES AND EMERGENCIES

Ge Ke, Qi-Jie Jiang, Abdullah Jameel Abualhamayl () and Xin-Ying Xu ()
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Ge Ke: School of Business Administration, Chongqing University of Science and Technology, 401331, P. R. China
Qi-Jie Jiang: Business School, Chengdu University, Chengdu, 610106, P. R. China
Abdullah Jameel Abualhamayl: Department of Information Technology, Faculty of Computing and Information Technology, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
Xin-Ying Xu: Economic School, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam, 3000 DR, Netherlands

FRACTALS (fractals), 2022, vol. 30, issue 02, 1-9

Abstract: With the rapid development of tourism economics, personalized and diversified demand of tourists and the advancement of modern information technologies, the investment of scenic spots faces multitudinous uncertainties and emergencies and can be considered as a nonlinear dynamic system. Given this situation, the existing investment decision-making model (e.g. net present value, NPV) is difficult to estimate the realistic value of scenic spots, and new theory and decision-making model are needed in the area. Based on real option theory and option function, the paper establishes a nonlinear dynamic investment decision model of scenic spots with uncertainties and emergencies, and then, the model is verified with an example. The results show that with the impacts of emergencies, when the investment value is considered, the option value of the investment project in the scenic spot can be maximized, thus maximizing the total value of the investment project. The proposed nonlinear dynamic investment decision model proves that the favourable impact of emergencies on the investment of scenic spots increases the investment opportunity value of scenic projects, thus increasing the investment value of scenic projects, emphasizes more on the dynamic nature of investment and the favourable conditions in the face of crisis, and helps enterprises investing in scenic spots make full use of its uncertain environment and the favourable impact of emergencies to choose the optimal investment opportunity. Therefore, this study has both theoretical and practical significance.

Keywords: Nonlinear Differential Model; Investment Decision; Scenic Spots; Option Function; Uncertainties; Emergencies (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1142/S0218348X22401089

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