MODELING THE TRANSMISSION PHENOMENA OF COVID-19 INFECTION WITH THE EFFECT OF VACCINATION VIA NONINTEGER DERIVATIVE UNDER REAL STATISTIC

Ting Cui and Peijiang Liu
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Ting Cui: School of Economics, Guangdong University of Finance and Economics, Guangzhou 510320, P. R. China
Peijiang Liu: ��School of Statistics and Mathematics, Guangdong University of Finance and Economics, Big Data and Educational Statistics Application Laboratory, Guangzhou 510320, P. R. China‡School of Statistics and Mathematics, Guangdong University of Finance and Economics, Guangzhou 510320, P. R. China

FRACTALS (fractals), 2022, vol. 30, issue 05, 1-19

Abstract: The infection of coronavirus (COVID-19) is a dangerous and life-threatening disease which spread to almost all parts of the globe. We present a mathematical model for the transmission of COVID-19 with vaccination effects. The basic properties of fractional calculus are presented for the inspection of the model. We calculate the equilibria of the model and determined the reproduction number â„›0. Local asymptotic stability conditions for the disease-free are obtained which determines the conditions to stabilize the exponential spread of the disease. The nonlinear least-square procedure is utilized to parameterize the model from actual cases reported in Pakistan. By fixed point theory, we prove the existence of a unique solution. We also present numerical results to simulate virus transmission and compare the results with those of the Caputo derivative. We study the solution pathways of the COVID-19 system to provide effective control policies for the infection. Significant changes have been noticed by lowering the order of fractional derivative.

Keywords: Coronavirus (COVID-19); Noninteger Dynamics; Epidemic Model; Threshold Parameter; Existence Theory; Numerical Scheme; Dynamical Behavior; Real Data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1142/S0218348X22401521

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