TESTING FOR INTRINSIC MULTIFRACTALITY IN THE GLOBAL GRAIN SPOT MARKET INDICES: A MULTIFRACTAL DETRENDED FLUCTUATION ANALYSIS

Li Wang, Xing-Lu Gao and Wei-Xing Zhou
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Li Wang: School of Business, East China University of Science and Technology, Shanghai 200237, P. R. China†Research Center for Econophysics, East China University of Science and Technology, Shanghai 200237, P. R. China‡International Elite Engineering School, East China University of Science and Technology, Shanghai 200237, P. R. China
Xing-Lu Gao: School of Business, East China University of Science and Technology, Shanghai 200237, P. R. China

FRACTALS (fractals), 2023, vol. 31, issue 07, 1-24

Abstract: Grains account for more than 50% of the calories consumed by people worldwide, and military conflicts, pandemics, climate change, and soaring grain prices all have vital impacts on food security. However, the complex price behavior of the global grain spot markets has not been well understood. A recent study performed multifractal moving average analysis (MF-DMA) of the Grains & Oilseeds Index (GOI) and its sub-indices of wheat, maize, soybeans, rice, and barley and it was found that only the maize and barley sub-indices exhibit an intrinsic multifractal nature with convincing evidence. Here, we utilize multifractal fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) to investigate the same problem. Extensive statistical tests confirm the presence of intrinsic multifractality in the maize and barley sub-indices and the absence of intrinsic multifractality in the wheat and rice sub-indices. Different from the MF-DMA results, the MF-DFA results suggest that there is also intrinsic multifractality in the GOI and soybeans sub-indices. Our comparative analysis does not provide conclusive information about the GOI and soybeans and highlights the high complexity of the global grain spot markets.

Keywords: Econophysics; Multifractal Analysis; Detrended Fluctuation Analysis; Grain Spot Market; Statistical Test; IAAFT Surrogates (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Working Paper: Testing for intrinsic multifractality in the global grain spot market indices: A multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (2023)
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DOI: 10.1142/S0218348X23500901

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