MULTICOMPARTMENTAL ANALYSIS OF MIDDLE EASTERN RESPIRATORY SYNDROME CORONAVIRUS MODEL UNDER FRACTIONAL OPERATOR WITH NEXT-GENERATION MATRIX METHODS

Mati Ur Rahman (), Ghadah Alhawael and Yeliz Karaca
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Mati Ur Rahman: School of Mathematical Science, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, P. R. China
Ghadah Alhawael: Department of Basic Sciences, King Saud University, P. O. Box 145111, Riyadh 11362, Saudi Arabia
Yeliz Karaca: University of Massachusetts Chan Medical School (UMASS), 55 Lake Avenue North, Worcester, MA 01655, USA4Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA

FRACTALS (fractals), 2023, vol. 31, issue 10, 1-20

Abstract: Deterministic and fractional properties of an epidemic model for the dynamics of the Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-COV) with various infection stages are proposed in this study whose aim is to show via a mathematical model the transmission of MERS-COV between humans and camels, which are suspected to be the primary source of infection. The mathematical aspects together with biological feasibility of MERS-COV model are provided. The basic reproduction number R0 has been calculated by using the next-generation matrix. With the help of R0, we show the local and global stability analysis of the proposed model. Analysis of sensitivity for the threshold number is performed to understand the most sensitive parameter. Moreover, the concepts of strength number and second-order derivative of the Lyapunov function have been utilized for the waves detection. By using the concept of fixed point approach for the model, concerning if it really exists or not, we prove the existence and uniqueness results for the proposed model. The numerical solutions are obtained with the help of well-known fractional Adams–Bashforth technique. For the approximate solution, with the help of Runge–Kutta technique of order four, we accomplish the numerical simulations to support our analytical outcomes which are believed to have an effective impact on developing preventive measures for MERS-CoV, including disease control as well as prevention of spread and transmission in related populations.

Keywords: Next-Generation Matrix Method; Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome; Ordinary Differential Equations; Fractional Order Differential Equations; Fractional Adams–Bashforth Technique; Lyapunov Function; Strength Number; Waves Detection; Disease Free Equilibria (DFE); Endemic Equilibria (EE); Fractional Order Differential Equations; Experimental Data and Validations; Stability Analysis; Convergence; Numerical Simulations; Second-Order Derivatives; Fractional Complex Model for Epidemiology Dynamics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1142/S0218348X23400935

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