MONKEYPOX VIRAL TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS AND FRACTIONAL-ORDER MODELING WITH VACCINATION INTERVENTION

Jaskirat Pal Singh, Sachin Kumar, Dumitru Baleanu and Kottakkaran Sooppy Nisar
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Jaskirat Pal Singh: Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Central University of Punjab, Bathinda–151401, Punjab, India
Sachin Kumar: Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Central University of Punjab, Bathinda–151401, Punjab, India
Dumitru Baleanu: Department of Mathematics, Cankaya University, Angara, Turkey3Institute of Space Sciences, Magurele–Bucharest, Romania4Department of Medical Research, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan
Kottakkaran Sooppy Nisar: Department of Mathematics, College of Arts and Sciences, Prince Sattam bin Abdulaziz University, Wadi Aldawaser, 11991, Saudi Arabia6School of Technology, Woxsen University, Hyderabad-502345, Telangana State, India

FRACTALS (fractals), 2023, vol. 31, issue 10, 1-17

Abstract: A current outbreak of the monkeypox viral infection, which started in Nigeria, has spread to other areas of the globe. This affects over 28 nations, including the United Kingdom and the United States. The monkeypox virus causes monkeypox (MPX), which is comparable to smallpox and cowpox (MPXV). The monkeypox virus is a member of the Poxviridae family and belongs to the Orthopoxvirus genus. In this work, a novel fractional model for Monkeypox based on the Caputo derivative is explored. For the model, two equilibria have been established: disease-free and endemic equilibrium. Using the next-generation matrix and Castillo’s technique, if R0 < 1 the global asymptotic stability of disease-free equilibrium is shown. The linearization demonstrated that the endemic equilibrium point is locally asymptotically stable if R0 > 1. Using the parameter values, the model’s fundamental reproduction rates for both humans and non-humans are calculated. The existence and uniqueness of the solution are proved using fixed point theory. The model’s numerical simulations demonstrate that the recommended actions will cause the infected people in the human and non-human populations to disappear.

Keywords: Monkeypox; Caputo Fractional Derivative; Reproduction Number; Stability Analysis; Fractional Euler’s Method; Fixed Point Theory; Next-Generation Matrix; Existence and Uniqueness (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1142/S0218348X23400960

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