UNRAVELING THE DYNAMICS OF EBOLA VIRUS WITH CONTACT TRACING AS CONTROL STRATEGY

James Andrawus, Abdullahi Yusuf, Umar Tasiu Mustapha, Ali S. Alshomrani and Dumitru Baleanu
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James Andrawus: Department of Mathematics, Federal University, Dutse, Jigawa State, Nigeria
Abdullahi Yusuf: Department of Mathematics, Federal University, Dutse, Jigawa State, Nigeria†Department of Computer Science and Mathematics, Lebanese American University, Beirut, Lebanon‡Near East University, Operational Research Center in Healthcare, Nicosia 99138, TRNC Mersin 10, Turkey
Umar Tasiu Mustapha: Department of Mathematics, Federal University, Dutse, Jigawa State, Nigeria
Ali S. Alshomrani: �Department of Mathematics, King Abdul Aziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
Dumitru Baleanu: �Institute of Space Sciences, Magurele, Bucharest, Romania∥Lebanese American University, 11022801 Beirut, Lebanon

FRACTALS (fractals), 2023, vol. 31, issue 10, 1-18

Abstract: In this paper, a mathematical model of Ebola virus with contact tracing as a control strategy was developed and analyzed. We considered the model without contact tracing and with perfect contact tracing. The two sub-models have been explicitly analyzed. In the first sub-model, it has been found that the disease-free equilibrium (DFE) is both locally and globally asymptotically stable whenever the associated control reproduction number is less than one. The endemic equilibrium point (EEP) is globally asymptotically stable whenever the associated control reproduction number is greater than one. In the second sub-model, it has been found that the DFE is both locally and globally asymptotically stable whenever the control reproduction number is less than one. The EEP is globally asymptotically stable whenever the control reproduction number is greater than one. The full model has also been analyzed, which shows that the DFE is both locally and globally asymptotically stable whenever the associated control reproduction number is less than one. The EEP is globally asymptotically stable whenever the control reproduction number is greater than one. In sensitivity analysis part, effective contact rate for humans was very sensitive in increasing the basic reproduction number and personal hygiene was very sensitive in decreasing the basic reproduction number also, numerical simulation shows that the Ebola virus can be wiped out in society if contact tracing and personal hygiene can be implemented perfectly in the human population.

Keywords: Ebola Virus; Contact Tracing; Mathematical Modeling; Control Strategy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1142/S0218348X2340159X

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