THRESHOLD DYNAMICS AND BIFURCATION ANALYSIS OF THE EPIDEMIC MODEL OF MERS-CoV

Hessah Alqahtani (), Qaisar Badshah (), Ghaus Ur Rahman, Dumitru Baleanu and Shazia Sakhi ()
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Hessah Alqahtani: Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science and Arts, King Abdulaziz University, Rabigh, Saudi Arabia
Qaisar Badshah: Department of Mathematics & Statistics, University of Swat, KPK, Pakistan
Ghaus Ur Rahman: Department of Mathematics & Statistics, University of Swat, KPK, Pakistan
Dumitru Baleanu: Department of Computer Science and Mathematics, Lebanese American University, Beirut, Lebanon4Institute of Space Sciences, Magurele 077125 Bucharest, Romania5Department of Medical Research, China Medical University Hospital, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan
Shazia Sakhi: Centre for Plant Sciences & Biodiversity, University of Swat, Pakistan

FRACTALS (fractals), 2023, vol. 31, issue 10, 1-22

Abstract: A viral respiratory disease, MERS spread by a novel coronavirus, was first detected in Saudi Arabia in 2012. It is a big threat for the Arab community and is a horrible prediction that the disease may rapidly propagate to other parts of the world. In this research endeavor, a mathematical model of MERS-Corona virus (MERS-CoV) is presented. Initially, we formulate a model, governing the dynamics of MERS-CoV disease and then determine basic reproductive number â„›0. Local stability analysis results are formulated at the equilibrium points. It has been found that one of the eigenvalues is zero, therefore bifurcation exists. Afterward, in formulating proper Lyapunov functional [J. P. LaSalle, The Stability of Dynamical Systems, Vol. 25 (Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, 1976)], we successfully established results about global stability of the proposed model at both equilibrium points. Sensitivity analysis of the parameters as well as of threshold value for the underlying model has been exhibited. The numerical illustration of theoretical findings is explained via examples.

Keywords: MERS-CoV; Basic Reproduction Number; Stability Analysis; Sensitivity Analysis; Numerical Simulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1142/S0218348X23401679

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