RESEARCH ON CHAOTIC CHARACTERISTICS AND SHORT-TERM PREDICTION OF EN-ROUTE TRAFFIC FLOW USING ADS-B DATA

Zhaoyue Zhang, Zhe Cui, Zhisen Wang and Lingkai Meng
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Zhaoyue Zhang: College of Air Traffic Management, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 300300, P. R. China
Zhe Cui: College of Air Traffic Management, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 300300, P. R. China
Zhisen Wang: College of Air Traffic Management, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 300300, P. R. China
Lingkai Meng: ��CAAC East China Regional Administration, Shanghai 200050, P. R. China

FRACTALS (fractals), 2024, vol. 32, issue 04, 1-18

Abstract: The short-term traffic flow prediction can help to reduce flight delays and optimize resource allocation. Using chaos dynamics theory to analyze the chaotic characteristics of en-route traffic flow is the basis of short-term en-route traffic flow prediction and ensuring the orderly and smooth state of the en-route. This paper takes the time series of en-route traffic flow extracted from Automatic-Dependent Surveillance Broadcast (ADS-B) measured data as the research object, uses the improved C–C method to reconstruct the phase space, and uses the improved small data volume method to calculate the Lyapunov index to identify the chaos phenomenon of en-route traffic flow. In order to avoid the interference of chaos phenomenon on traffic prediction, the Wavelet Neural Network (WNN) model is established to predict the traffic flow at en-route points. The experimental shows that when the number of iterations is 10,000, the average accuracy of WNN prediction is 0.87173, and the average running time is 6.9335334s. According to the experimental results, it can be seen that the smaller number of iterations has more advantages in running time, which greatly reduces the overall running time. At the same time, it indicates that appropriately increasing or reducing the number of iterations in this experiment has little effect on the results.

Keywords: Air Traffic Flow; Chaotic Characteristics; Wavelet Neural Network; ADS-B (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1142/S0218348X2340131X

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