MONKEYPOX: A NEW MATHEMATICAL MODEL USING THE CAPUTO–FABRIZIO FRACTIONAL DERIVATIVE

Tamilarasi Mathivanan, Radhakrishnan Bheeman, Prasantha Bharathi Dhandapani, Ibrahim Alraddadi, Hijaz Ahmad and Taha Radwan
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Tamilarasi Mathivanan: Department of Mathematics, Sri Eshwar College of Engineering, Coimbatore 641202, Tamil Nadu, India
Radhakrishnan Bheeman: ��Department of Mathematics, PSG College of Technology, Coimbatore 641004, Tamil Nadu, India
Prasantha Bharathi Dhandapani: Department of Mathematics, Sri Eshwar College of Engineering, Coimbatore 641202, Tamil Nadu, India
Ibrahim Alraddadi: ��Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Islamic University of Madinah, Madinah, Saudi Arabia
Hijaz Ahmad: ��Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Islamic University of Madinah, Madinah, Saudi Arabia§Operational Research Center in Healthcare, Near East University, Nicosia/TRNC, 99138 Mersin 10, Turkey¶Department of Technical Sciences, Western Caspian University, Baku 1001, Azerbaijan∥Department of Mathematics, College of Science, Korea University, 145 Anam-ro, Seongbuk-gu, Seoul 02841, South Korea
Taha Radwan: *Department of Management Information Systems, College of Business and Economics, Qassim University, Buraydah 51452, Saudi Arabia

FRACTALS (fractals), 2025, vol. 33, issue 06, 1-18

Abstract: The efficiency of various control measures to stop the spread of monkeypox disease is examined in this paper by analyzing a compartmental model for the disease using the Caputo–Fabrizio fractional derivative approach. The methodology of maximum likelihood estimation is used to fully parametrize the model. By conducting a thorough mathematical analysis of the model, we look into the existence and uniqueness of solutions as well as the establishment of requirements guaranteeing the rigidity and continuation of these solutions. We then analyze the fundamental reproduction number in terms of sensitivity. To provide numerical answers, the Adams–Bashforth predictor–corrector approach is utilized, which is specifically designed for the fractional derivatives of Caputo–Fabrizio. The model is numerically simulated over a range of fractional-order numbers to illustrate our results. Our study contributes significantly to the area of epidemiology by emphasizing the vital roles that effective treatment, infection awareness, and immunization programs have in significantly lowering the spread of disease.

Keywords: Fractional Derivatives; Maximum Likelihood Estimation; Continuity; Stability; Numerical Solution (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1142/S0218348X25401280

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