THE SPEECHES OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK’s PRESIDENTS: AN NLP STUDY

Thierry Warin and William Sanger
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William Sanger: #x2020;Department of Mathematics and Industrial Engineering, Polytechnique Montréal 2900 Boulevard, Edouard-Montpetit, Montréal, QC H3T 1J4, Canada‡CIRANO, 1130 Sherbrooke Ouest #1400, Montréal, QC H3A 2M8, Canada

Global Economy Journal (GEJ), 2020, vol. 20, issue 02, 1-31

Abstract: This paper introduces natural language processing into the study of central banking. It studies the evolution of the ECB’s communication through time, considering its three subsequent presidents (W. Duisenberg, J. C. Trichet and M. Draghi) and the pre- and post-2008 financial crisis era. It helps understand the history of the ECB since its inception. From a methodological standpoint, we study the evolution of the ECB’s speeches. The speech analysis is based on text classification and sentiment/polarity analyses. For that purpose, we have built a unique dataset of the ECB’s speeches. We have coded algorithms to run the text analysis through time. They help us capture the evolution in the ECB’s understanding of the actual economic situation and also measure — for instance — the stress level at the ECB through a polarity analysis through time.

Keywords: European central bank; text analysis; data science; natural language processing; institutional communications (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1142/S2194565920500098

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