LOGISTIC FORECASTING OF GDP COMPETITIVENESS

Arnab K. Ray ()
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Arnab K. Ray: Dhirubhai Ambani Institute of Information and Communication Technology, Gandhinagar 382007, Gujarat, India

Global Economy Journal (GEJ), 2024, vol. 24, issue 01n04, 1-14

Abstract: The growth of the nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of national economies is modeled by the logistic function. Applying it on the GDP data of the World Bank till the year 2020, we forecast the outcome of the competitive GDP growth of Japan, Germany, the UK and India, all of whose current GDPs are very close to one another. Fulfilling one of the predictions, the GDP of India overtook the GDP of the UK in 2022. We further forecast that in 2047 the GDP of India will exceed the GDPs of both Japan and Germany. When trade saturates, large and populous countries (like India) have the benefit of high domestic consumption to propel their GDP growth.

Keywords: Economics and econophysics; dynamics of social systems; nonlinear dynamics; systems obeying scaling laws (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1142/S2194565924500088

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