EVALUATION OF SMALL- AND MEDIUM-SIZED DISPLAY MARKET FORECASTS

Jen-Hung Huang (), Hyley Huang () and Cheng Few Lee
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Jen-Hung Huang: Department of Management Science, National Chiao Tung University, 1001 Ta Hsueh Road, Hsinchu, 300, Taiwan
Hyley Huang: National Chiao Tung University, Wintek Corporation, 10 Chien-Kuo Road, TEPZ Tantzu, Taichung 427, Taiwan

International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), 2008, vol. 07, issue 03, 517-528

Abstract: The main purpose of this paper is to evaluate small- and medium-sized display market forecasts made by a market research firm. Hypotheses concerning the relationship between stages of technology development and the accuracy of market forecasts are first developed. The hypotheses are then tested and evaluated using the data issued by one market research company, Techno Systems Research (TSR). Kruskal–Wallis rank sum test and nonparametric simple regression are the statistical methods used.The results of the data analysis showed that the forecasts made by the market research company are dependable for mature technology in mature markets, whereas for a new technology their forecasts are inaccurate. Furthermore, the accuracy of forecasts quite often does not improve over time.To our knowledge, no prior published works examine the accuracy of the forecasts made by market research firms. This research shows that small- and medium-sized display manufacturers have to be cautious when using forecast data from market research firms.

Keywords: Forecasting; small and medium display; LCD; Theil's U; nonparametric methods (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008
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DOI: 10.1142/S0219622008003009

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