The Need for Adding Judgment in Bayesian Prediction

Thomas L. Saaty () and Lei Zhang
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Thomas L. Saaty: Joseph M. Katz Graduate School of Business and College of Business, University of Pittsburgh, Mervis Hall, Pittsburgh, PA, US
Lei Zhang: School of Economics and Management, Beijing Jiaotong University, No. 3, Shangyuancun, Haidian District, Beijing, China

International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), 2016, vol. 15, issue 04, 733-761

Abstract: There are many examples of successful application of the famous Bayes’ theorem to forecast the outcome of causes or influences of events. However, there are also many examples of failures of just using probabilities and statistics without also using judgments in each particular application. This is particularly true in medical diagnoses and in sports. The extension we proposed found a way to calculate probabilities combining logical inference of data and judgment. This research extends the use of Bayes’ theorem by incorporating judgments within the framework of the frequently used decision theory, the analytic network process (ANP) and illustrates its use with an application.

Keywords: Bayes’ theorem; prediction; ANP; probability; judgment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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DOI: 10.1142/S0219622016400010

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