A Knowledge-Based Multi-Criteria Decision Support System Encompassing Cascading Effects for Disaster Management

Brunella Caroleo, Enrico Palumbo (), Michele Osella (), Antonio Lotito (), Giuseppe Rizzo (), Enrico Ferro (), Antonio Attanasio (), Silvia Chiusano (), Giulio Zuccaro (), Mattia Leone () and Daniela De Gregorio ()
Additional contact information
Brunella Caroleo: Istituto Superiore Mario Boella (ISMB), Via P. C. Boggio 61, Turin, 10138, Italy
Enrico Palumbo: Istituto Superiore Mario Boella (ISMB), Via P. C. Boggio 61, Turin, 10138, Italy
Michele Osella: Istituto Superiore Mario Boella (ISMB), Via P. C. Boggio 61, Turin, 10138, Italy
Antonio Lotito: Istituto Superiore Mario Boella (ISMB), Via P. C. Boggio 61, Turin, 10138, Italy
Giuseppe Rizzo: Istituto Superiore Mario Boella (ISMB), Via P. C. Boggio 61, Turin, 10138, Italy
Enrico Ferro: Istituto Superiore Mario Boella (ISMB), Via P. C. Boggio 61, Turin, 10138, Italy
Antonio Attanasio: Politecnico di Torino, Department of Control and Computing Engineering, Corso Duca Degli Abruzzi 24, Turin 10129, Italy
Silvia Chiusano: Politecnico di Torino, Department of Control and Computing Engineering, Corso Duca Degli Abruzzi 24, Turin 10129, Italy
Giulio Zuccaro: Università di Napoli Federico II, LUPT-PLINIVS Study Centre, Via Toledo 402, Naples 80134, Italy
Mattia Leone: Università di Napoli Federico II, LUPT-PLINIVS Study Centre, Via Toledo 402, Naples 80134, Italy
Daniela De Gregorio: Università di Napoli Federico II, LUPT-PLINIVS Study Centre, Via Toledo 402, Naples 80134, Italy

International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), 2018, vol. 17, issue 05, 1469-1498

Abstract: This paper describes a knowledge-based decision support system (KB-DSS) to improve the preparedness of crisis situations induced by natural and technological hazards. The proposed KB-DSS aims to manage the potential cascading effects generated by a triggering hazard assessing the possible event time histories based on interconnected probabilistic simulation models. From a methodological point of view, a decision model based on two Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) algorithms follows a cascading effect simulation model. This combination allows to support the decision maker in comparing a set of mitigation strategies on the basis of their expected impacts and his priorities. The algorithm is based on an ensemble approach, which combines decisions over an array of possible impact scenarios, instead of only relying on the average impact scenario. An application of the KB-DSS to the case of a possible reactivation of Nea Kameni volcano in Santorini is presented to show how the proposed architecture could be applied to a real case. The proposed methodology supports the emergency planners in making the best decisions supporting them also in the choice of the best timing for the intervention.

Keywords: Decision support system; knowledge-based; multi-criteria decision making; disaster management; cascading effects (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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DOI: 10.1142/S021962201850030X

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