A Health Evaluation Method of Complex Systems Based on Evidential Reasoning Rule Considering Perturbations

Shuaiwen Tang (), Zhijie Zhou, You Cao (), Pengyun Ning (), Peng Zhang, Dao Zhao and Leiyu Chen ()
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Shuaiwen Tang: Department of Automation High-Tech Institute of Xi’an, Xi’an, Shaanxi 710025, P. R. China
Zhijie Zhou: Department of Automation High-Tech Institute of Xi’an, Xi’an, Shaanxi 710025, P. R. China
You Cao: Department of Automation High-Tech Institute of Xi’an, Xi’an, Shaanxi 710025, P. R. China
Pengyun Ning: Department of Automation High-Tech Institute of Xi’an, Xi’an, Shaanxi 710025, P. R. China
Peng Zhang: Department of Automation High-Tech Institute of Xi’an, Xi’an, Shaanxi 710025, P. R. China†State Key Laboratory of Astronautic Dynamics, Xi’an Satellite Control Center Xi’an 710043, P. R. China
Dao Zhao: Department of Automation High-Tech Institute of Xi’an, Xi’an, Shaanxi 710025, P. R. China†State Key Laboratory of Astronautic Dynamics, Xi’an Satellite Control Center Xi’an 710043, P. R. China
Leiyu Chen: Department of Automation High-Tech Institute of Xi’an, Xi’an, Shaanxi 710025, P. R. China

International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), 2025, vol. 24, issue 02, 679-706

Abstract: The complex system has been widely applied in aerospace, chemical industry, manufacturing, military equipment and other fields. To ensure its safe and reliable operation, it is necessary for technicians to grasp the health state of the system effectively. However, if there are perturbations in the observation data, the evaluation result may be inaccurate. Besides, the effectiveness of evaluation result can be affected by perturbation, which means that the threshold of perturbation intensity should be determined. To solve these problems, in this paper, a new health evaluation method of complex systems is proposed based on the evidential reasoning (ER) rule by considering perturbations. First, the structure of the evaluation model is constructed. Second, an ER rule-based health evaluation model is proposed, and the idea of perturbation analysis is introduced for the robustness analysis of the model. Third, a parameter optimization model is established, and the upper bound of perturbation intensity is estimated accurately. The threshold can measure the effectiveness of the evaluation result and the anti-perturbation ability of the system in engineering practice. Finally, a case study of the WD615 model diesel engine is conducted to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Keywords: Health evaluation; evidential reasoning rule; complex system; perturbation; parameter optimization (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1142/S0219622022500419

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