A PAE Model Based on Synthetic Control Method and Policy Instruments for the Carbon Emission Reduction Effect of Green Finance Pilot Zones

Che Han (), Aihua Li, Yuxue Chi () and Bing Ma ()
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Che Han: School of Management Science and Engineering, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing 100080, P. R. China
Aihua Li: School of Management Science and Engineering, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing 100080, P. R. China
Yuxue Chi: School of Management Science and Engineering, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing 100080, P. R. China
Bing Ma: School of Management Science and Engineering, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing 100080, P. R. China

International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), 2025, vol. 24, issue 03, 929-956

Abstract: Green finance directs social capital to support projects that benefit the environment and sustainable development. This paper constructs a policy analysis and evaluation (PAE) model based on a synthetic control method and policy instrument. Through the quantitative analysis of the actual effect of policy impacts and the analysis of policy instruments, the PAE model jointly analyses and evaluates the policy effects from both causes and consequences. This paper takes the first batch of green finance pilot zones in China as an example. The model results show that Guizhou has the best emission constraint effect. The carbon reduction effect in Jiangxi and Zhejiang is not significant. The growth of carbon emissions in Guangdong and Xinjiang accelerated. Furthermore, the PAE model analyses the mechanism of policy impacts. The difference in policy focus is the cause of the difference in carbon emission control effects. This result strengthens the reliability of the evaluation conclusions from the perspective of policy supply and provides valuable policy experience.

Keywords: Synthetic control method; green finance; carbon emission; policy instrument (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1142/S0219622025410056

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