Leading Indicators for Detecting Change of Technology Trends: Comparison of Patents, Papers and Newspaper Articles in Japan and US

Takeshi Maeno, Yusuke Iwasawa and Yutaka Matsuo
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Takeshi Maeno: New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization, Kanagawa, Japan
Yusuke Iwasawa: ��The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
Yutaka Matsuo: ��The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan

International Journal of Innovation and Technology Management (IJITM), 2021, vol. 18, issue 04, 1-18

Abstract: Continual development necessitates innovation. One must discover seeds of innovation and then concentrate resources on these seeds. To do so, one must recognize technology trends and then adopt and execute appropriate innovation strategies. This study used advanced change point detection method to investigate leading indicators that represent changes in technology trends. We examine patents, papers, and newspaper articles in Japan and US for 55 technologies. Results suggest that patents can be more appropriate as leading indicators than either papers or newspapers. This result can contribute to appropriate innovation strategies for planning and updating, and can provide tools that are useful to decision-makers.

Keywords: Bibliometrics; change point detection; data mining; patent analysis; sequentially discounting auto regression (SDAR) model learning algorithm (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1142/S0219877021500176

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