Real-World Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) in the Italian Scenario: Evidence from a Multiple Case Study

Valeria M. Urbano, Giovanni Azzone (), Marika Arena () and Francesco Surdo ()
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Valeria M. Urbano: Department of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering, Politecnico di Milano, Milan 20156, Italy
Giovanni Azzone: Department of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering, Politecnico di Milano, Milan 20156, Italy
Marika Arena: Department of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering, Politecnico di Milano, Milan 20156, Italy
Francesco Surdo: Department of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering, Politecnico di Milano, Milan 20156, Italy

International Journal of Innovation and Technology Management (IJITM), 2024, vol. 21, issue 08, 1-31

Abstract: The growing turbulence of business environments has amplified the need to anticipate technological breakthroughs through systematic processes referred to as Future-oriented Technology Analysis (FTA). FTA practices that the literature reports are diverse and, in various aspects, not univocally defined. Additionally, the empirical evidence concerning the implementation of different FTA practices, concerning various methodological approaches covered by the FTA as a whole, is still scant. This study aims to fill this gap by investigating whether the heterogeneity of processes that have emerged from the literature mirrors real-world business practices and by exploring the relationship between the different characterizing features of FTA. The study employs a multiple case study design, analyzing the FTA processes implemented in 10 Italian companies and examining six main dimensions of analysis: systematicity, strategic nature, object, methodological approach, time horizon and stakeholders involved. The case analysis revealed that the practices adopted by these companies are typically non-systematic, often relying on informal and de-structured processes. The strategic relevance of FTA varies based on industry characteristics. However, in all these cases, the primary focus of FTA was on identifying emerging technologies, rather than predicting and creating future technologies. Finally, a predominant configuration of FTA emerged, involving the usage of FTA to detect existing or emerging technologies using qualitative techniques and the involvement of external stakeholders to enhance the anticipatory performance of the process.

Keywords: Technology analysis; future development; emerging technologies; FTA; technology forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1142/S0219877024500603

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