PROMOTING MORE SUSTAINABLE RURAL LAND USE AND DEVELOPMENT: A CASE STUDY IN EASTERN EUROPE USING BAYESIAN NETWORK MODELS

Philip J. Bacon (), Jeremy D. Cain, Michal Kozakiewicz, Marcin Brzezinski and Anna Liro
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Philip J. Bacon: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Banchory, Glassel, Banchory, Aberdeenshire AB31 4BW, Scotland, UK
Jeremy D. Cain: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Wallingford, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, Oxfordshire OX10 8BB, UK
Michal Kozakiewicz: Department of Ecology, Warsaw University, Banacha 2, 02-097 Warsawa, Poland
Marcin Brzezinski: Department of Ecology, Warsaw University, Banacha 2, 02-097 Warsawa, Poland
Anna Liro: Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, Wspolna 30, 00-922, Warsawa, Poland

Journal of Environmental Assessment Policy and Management (JEAPM), 2002, vol. 04, issue 02, 199-240

Abstract: A Bayesian Network approach to developing effective policies for more sustainable rural land use and development is presented which:• incorporates several different stakeholder viewpoints• integrates and balances the results from different viewpoints, and thus facilitates compromise land use solutions• elucidates the main factors affecting stakeholders' decisions, on which policy levers will operate more effectively• allows differences between "expected change" and "observed change" to be understood as arising from uncertainty and variation about "the average situation"• demonstrates the crucial roles of beliefs and uncertainties in determining the preferred options of different groups• emphasises the need to know the beliefs and uncertainties of local land managers• incorporates public participation and social learning while such necessary data are gathered.The approach's merits for fostering pro-active policy design and subsidiarity, and for focusing the research needed to underpin rural policy are discussed.

Keywords: Decision models; policy design; rural economics; subsidiarity; integrated assessment; public participation; social learning; Poland; EU accession (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2002
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DOI: 10.1142/S1464333202000966

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