Climate Change Adaptation to Heat Risk at the Local Level: A Bayesian Network Analysis of Local Land-Use Plan Implementation

Julie Donner, Nora Friederike Sprondel () and Johann Köppel ()
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Julie Donner: Environmental Assessment and Planning Research Group, Technische Universität Berlin, 10623 Berlin, Germany
Nora Friederike Sprondel: Environmental Assessment and Planning Research Group, Technische Universität Berlin, 10623 Berlin, Germany
Johann Köppel: Environmental Assessment and Planning Research Group, Technische Universität Berlin, 10623 Berlin, Germany

Journal of Environmental Assessment Policy and Management (JEAPM), 2017, vol. 19, issue 02, 1-29

Abstract: Urban and environmental planning plays an important role in climate change adaptation. In this area, most German cities have developed adaptation strategies, inter alia tackling growing urban heat effects. Still in question, however, is how these measures will be implemented at the local level. The goal of this paper is to assess the implementation probability of climate change adaptation measures via local land-use plans using a Bayesian Network approach. Six plans were analysed in-depth. We used expert interviews to estimate the likelihood of implementing climate-adapted measures. Whether a local land-use plan stimulates climate change adaptation depends on a combination of different factors, e.g. the setting of the borough councillor in exchange with an investor, in a next step the willingness of the plans’ creator to implement adaptation strategies as well as an existing environmental report.

Keywords: Bayesian Network; climate change adaptation; urban heat; urban governance strategies (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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DOI: 10.1142/S1464333217500107

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