Forecasting Models Based on Data Analytics for Predicting Rice Price Volatility: A Case Study of the Sri Lankan Rice Market

Chanchala Hathurusingha (), Neda Abdelhamid () and David Airehrour ()
Additional contact information
Chanchala Hathurusingha: Nelson Marlborough Institute of Technology, Auckland, New Zealand
Neda Abdelhamid: Information Technology, Auckland Institute of Studies, Auckland, New Zealand
David Airehrour: Nelson Marlborough Institute of Technology, Auckland, New Zealand

Journal of Information & Knowledge Management (JIKM), 2019, vol. 18, issue 01, 1-20

Abstract: Paddy rice is a staple food that is common among the Sri Lankan populace. However, the frequent price variation of rice has negatively impacted the Sri Lankan economy. This is due to the Sri Lankan rice market lacking the mechanisms to evaluate and predict future rice price variations, often leaving domestic traders and consumers affected by sudden price spikes. This study identifies the quantifiable economic factors that affect the sudden rice price variations and presents a viable mechanism for forecasting Domestic Rice Price (DRP). In addition, it establishes three different regression models to emphasise the relationship of DRP in Sri Lanka with three economic factors: International Rice Price (IRP), International Crude Oil Price (ICOP), and USD Exchange Rate. Further, a time series model is formulated to forecast future variations in DRP while advancing factors that have a significant, but negative, correlative impact on the DRP. The results presented in this study show that the models proposed can be used by relevant food authorities to predict sudden hikes and dips in DRP, allowing them to establish a robust price control system.

Keywords: Rice price; linear regression; time series; exchange rate; crude oil price; normality (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S0219649219500060
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wsi:jikmxx:v:18:y:2019:i:01:n:s0219649219500060

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from

DOI: 10.1142/S0219649219500060

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Information & Knowledge Management (JIKM) is currently edited by Professor Suliman Hawamdeh

More articles in Journal of Information & Knowledge Management (JIKM) from World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Tai Tone Lim ().