Information Efficiency and Firm-Specific Return Variation

Patrick Kelly

Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), 2014, vol. 04, issue 04, 1-44

Abstract: Reasoning that private firm-specific information causes firm-specific return variation that drives down market-modelR2s, [Morcket al., 2000, The Information Content of Stock Markets: Why do Emerging Markets have Synchronous Stock Price Movements?Journal of Financial Economics, 58, 215–260] begin a large body of research which interpretsR2as an inverse measure of price informativeness. Low-R2s or "synchronicity," as it is called in this literature, signal that prices more efficiently incorporate private firm-specific information, and highR2s indicate less. For this to be true, we would expect that low-R2stocks have characteristics that facilitate private informed trade, i.e., lower information costs and fewer impediments to arbitrage. However, in this paper we document the opposite: Low-R2stocks are small, young, and followed by few analysts, and have high bid-ask spreads, high price impact, greater short-sale constraints and are infrequently traded. In fact, microstructure measures suggest that private-information events are less likely for low-R2stocks than high, and that differences inR2are driven as much by firm-specific volatility on days without private news as by firm-specific volatility on days with private news. These results call into question prior research usingR2to measure the information content of stock prices.

Keywords: Synchronicity; R2; private information; idiosyncratic volatility; market efficiency (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (59)

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Working Paper: Information Efficiency and Firm-Specific Return Variation (2014)
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DOI: 10.1142/S2010139214500189

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