FORECASTING FORWARD EXCHANGE RATE RISK PREMIUM IN SINGAPORE DOLLAR/US DOLLAR EXCHANGE RATE MARKET

Khurshid Kiani

The Singapore Economic Review (SER), 2009, vol. 54, issue 02, 283-298

Abstract: In this research, monthly forward exchange rates are evaluated for possible existence of time varying risk premia in Singapore forward foreign exchange rates against US dollar. The time varying risk premia in Singapore dollar is modeled using non-Gaussian signal plus noise models that encompass non-normality and time varying volatility.The results from signal plus noise models show statistically significant evidence of time varying risk premium in Singapore forward exchange rates although we failed to reject the hypotheses of no risk premium in the series. The results from Gaussian versions of these models are not much different and are in line with Wolff (1987) who also used the same methodology in Gaussian settings.Our results show statistically significant evidence of volatility clustering in Singapore forward exchange rates. The results from Gaussian signal plus noise models also show statistically significant evidence of volatility clustering and non-normality in Singapore forward foreign exchange rates. Additional tests on the series show that exclusion of conditional heteroskedasticity from the signal plus noise models leads to false statistical inferences.

Keywords: Forward foreign exchange rates; non-normality; risk premium; spot foreign exchange rates; signal extraction; volatility persistence (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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DOI: 10.1142/S0217590809003288

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