EMPIRICAL PSYCHOLOGY BETWEEN WHOLESALE PRICE AND CONSUMER PRICE INDICES: THE CASE OF PAKISTAN

Muhammad Shahbaz, Abu N. M. Wahid () and Adnan Haider
Additional contact information
Abu N. M. Wahid: Department of Economics and Finance, Tennessee State University, USA
Adnan Haider: Research Department, State Bank of Pakistan, Karachi, Pakistan

The Singapore Economic Review (SER), 2010, vol. 55, issue 03, 537-551

Abstract: In a small open economy, the retail sector adds value with a lag to existing production and uses existing domestic production as an input. Therefore, demand side dynamics depend on the wholesale prices of the domestic goods, the prices of the imported goods, the nominal exchange rate, the level of indirect taxes, the marginal cost of retail production and interest rates. Hence, this mechanism provides a theoretical basis for causality from wholesale prices to consumer prices. Being motivated by this causal transmission mechanism, this paper tries to examine the causal relationship between wholesale prices and consumer prices in a small developing economy like Pakistan. Empirical methodology uses recently developed tests for the existence of a long-run relationship between wholesale prices and consumer prices. Typically, in applied analysis, testing for the existence of cointegration and causality can only be carried out once the time series properties of the data have been established. For example, tests for cointegration require the variables to be integrated to the same order, typicallyI(1), prior to estimation. By eliminating the need for unit root pre-testing, the tests applied here considerably simplify the inference procedure. They also reduce the potential for distortions in the inference due to the unknown properties of the testing sequence. Our findings include robust evidence that, for Pakistan, there is a bidirectional causality between wholesale prices and consumer prices. Feedback impact shows that influences from the wholesale price index (WPI) to the consumers' price index (CPI) is stronger or dominating as compared to feedback from CPI to WPI supporting the Cushing-McGarvey (1990) hypothesis.

Keywords: Wholesale prices; consumer prices; causality; cointegration; Pakistan; C20; I10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (14)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S0217590810003882
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wsi:serxxx:v:55:y:2010:i:03:n:s0217590810003882

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from

DOI: 10.1142/S0217590810003882

Access Statistics for this article

The Singapore Economic Review (SER) is currently edited by Euston Quah

More articles in The Singapore Economic Review (SER) from World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Tai Tone Lim ().