EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

INFLATION, INFLATION UNCERTAINTY AND OUTPUT GROWTH: RECENT EVIDENCE FROM ASEAN-5 COUNTRIES

Siti Hamizah Mohd, Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah () and Stilianos Fountas ()
Additional contact information
Siti Hamizah Mohd: School of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 UKM Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia

The Singapore Economic Review (SER), 2013, vol. 58, issue 04, 1-17

Abstract: This paper investigates the links between inflation, its uncertainty and economic growth in five ASEAN countries over the period 1980: Q1–2011: Q3. We rely on the Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) model to explore the causal relationship among the three variables. The major findings are: (i) inflation uncertainty increases more in response to positive inflation surprises than to negative surprises in all countries; (ii) inflationary shocks affect positively inflation uncertainty as predicted by the Friedman–Ball hypothesis; (iii) there is no evidence to suggest that inflation uncertainty causes inflation and; (iv) there is evidence that inflation affects growth negatively, both directly and indirectly (via the inflation uncertainty channel). The indirect effect is clearly stronger as it applies in all countries in the sample.

Keywords: Inflation; inflation uncertainty; output growth; ASEAN; C22; E31; E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S0217590813500306
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
Working Paper: Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty and Output Growth: Recent Evidence from ASEAN-5 Countries (2012) Downloads
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wsi:serxxx:v:58:y:2013:i:04:n:s0217590813500306

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from

DOI: 10.1142/S0217590813500306

Access Statistics for this article

The Singapore Economic Review (SER) is currently edited by Euston Quah

More articles in The Singapore Economic Review (SER) from World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Tai Tone Lim ().

 
Page updated 2019-06-19
Handle: RePEc:wsi:serxxx:v:58:y:2013:i:04:n:s0217590813500306