AN INTEGRATED METHODOLOGY FOR REGIONAL MACROECONOMIC LOSS ESTIMATION OF EARTHQUAKE: A CASE STUDY OF TEHRAN

Iman Rahimi Aloughareh, Mohsen Ghafory Ashtiany and Kiarash Nasserasadi ()
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Iman Rahimi Aloughareh: Department of Civil Engineering, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran2Simon Bolivar Blvd, Ashrafi Isfahani Highway, Tehran, Iran
Mohsen Ghafory Ashtiany: Department of Civil Engineering, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran2Simon Bolivar Blvd, Ashrafi Isfahani Highway, Tehran, Iran
Kiarash Nasserasadi: Department of Engineering, University of Zanjan, Zanjan, Iran

The Singapore Economic Review (SER), 2016, vol. 61, issue 04, 1-24

Abstract: Rapid unmanaged growth of population and properties in metropolitan areas has increased the societal vulnerability to disasters. While the first step in disaster economic risk management is the quantification of economic losses, modeling unexpected events by equilibrium-oriented economic models which assume gradual and incremental changes over time and uniform spatial impacts poses analytical challenges. In this paper an integrated, operational methodology for evaluating the effects of earthquake on the economy based on the various types of losses and their relations is developed. A case study of Tehran shows future losses caused by studied earthquake scenarios will be more than 70% of gross regional product (GRP). Finally, a number of solutions for reducing negative impacts are introduced.

Keywords: Economic risk management; economic impacts; disasters economic losses; equilibrium-oriented macroeconomic models; input–output analysis; development studies (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1142/S0217590815500253

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