ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CHINA AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACT ON AUSTRALIA–CHINA BILATERAL TRADE: A PROJECTION FOR 2025 BASED ON THE CGE ANALYSIS

Yu Sheng, Peter Drysdale and Chunlai Chen
Additional contact information
Yu Sheng: Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, School of Advanced Agricultural Science, The Peking University, Beijing 100080, China

The Singapore Economic Review (SER), 2019, vol. 64, issue 04, 839-862

Abstract: This paper uses the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Static Model to predict the potential impact of economic growth in China on bilateral trade between China and Australia in 2025, under three different scenarios representing the business as usual, the successful reform and the stagnation cases, respectively. The results show that exports from Australia to China will continue to increase in both absolute and relative terms, irrespective of which economic growth path China takes, partly due to the strong complementary relationship of production between the two countries. The results also indicate that education service exports will become a new engine of bilateral trade in addition to agricultural and mineral products. Furthermore, comparing the results obtained from the three scenarios shows how successful reform will bring more benefits to both China and Australia in trade, which provides useful insights for policy making to facilitate bilateral economic relationship.

Keywords: GTAP Static Model; China economic growth; China–Australia bilateral trade (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S0217590817450059
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wsi:serxxx:v:64:y:2019:i:04:n:s0217590817450059

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from

DOI: 10.1142/S0217590817450059

Access Statistics for this article

The Singapore Economic Review (SER) is currently edited by Euston Quah

More articles in The Singapore Economic Review (SER) from World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Tai Tone Lim ().