POPULATION AGING, MIDDLE-INCOME TRAP, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF ASIAN ECONOMIES

Jiun-Nan Pan () and Ming-Lei Chang
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Jiun-Nan Pan: Discipline of Accounting, College of Management, Yuan Ze University, Taoyuan 320, Taiwan, ROC
Ming-Lei Chang: Department of Accounting, College of Business, Chung Yuan Christian University, Taoyuan 320, Taiwan, ROC

The Singapore Economic Review (SER), 2021, vol. 66, issue 06, 1577-1594

Abstract: Population aging and the middle-income trap are serious problems felt worldwide, especially in terms of their powerful influence on economic growth. In order to explore the relationships among population aging, middle-income trap, and economic growth, this study uses a panel data of 27 economies in Asia from 1995 to 2016. The primary finding of this study is that lower-middle-income economies are facing the problem of middle-income trap, indicating that the economic growth rates of lower-middle-income economies are slowing down. In addition, population aging has a statistically significant and negative influence on the growth rate of GDP in the high-income economies, but it has a statistically significant and positive influence on the growth rate of GDP in the low-income and lower-middle-income economies. This study suggests that increasing women’s labor participation, technology innovation, and immigration could solve the problems of population aging and the middle-income trap.

Keywords: Population aging; middle-income trap; economic growth; panel smooth regression model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1142/S0217590818420092

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