DIRECTIONAL ACCURACY OF SINGAPORE’S MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS

Young Bin Ahn and Yoichi Tsuchiya
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Young Bin Ahn: School of Economics, Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, P. R. China

The Singapore Economic Review (SER), 2023, vol. 68, issue 05, 1569-1583

Abstract: This study examines the directional accuracy of Singapore’s macroeconomic forecasts by professional forecasters, government agencies (i.e., central bank and Ministry of Trade and Industry, MTI), and international organizations. The results show that government agencies provide the most directionally accurate forecasts, suggesting that the macroeconomic and monetary policies are effective. Current-year forecasts are generally directionally accurate, with disparities among forecasters for next-year forecasts. Regarding GDP growth, the MTI and International Monetary Fund (IMF) provide directionally accurate forecasts up to four quarters ahead, whereas other forecasters provide them for at most three quarters ahead. For consumer price index inflation, except for the IMF, all others provide directionally accurate forecasts up to four quarters ahead.

Keywords: Macroeconomic forecast; directional accuracy; professional forecast; government forecast (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 D84 E37 E69 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1142/S0217590819500541

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