THE INTERDEPENDENCY OF UNCERTAINTIES IN ASEANÂ +Â 3 AND G6 ECONOMIES

Reza Anglingkusumo () and Bernard Njindan Iyke
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Reza Anglingkusumo: Bank Indonesia Institute, Indonesia
Bernard Njindan Iyke: Monash Business School, Monash University, Australia

The Singapore Economic Review (SER), 2024, vol. 69, issue 02, 837-858

Abstract: In this paper, we empirically examine the interdependency of uncertainties among ASEAN +3 countries as well as between these countries and the G6 countries. We collect the uncertainty data from the new World Uncertainty Index (WUI) database. The WUI captures uncertainty related to economic and political events in a country. We show that ASEANÂ +Â 3 countries as a group are weakly interdependent, in terms of the long-run relationships of uncertainties within the group. We demonstrate that, in the absence of outside influence, i.e., uncertainty shocks emanating from the G6, the +3 and ASEAN countries are two independent group of countries with the former having its own dynamics and the latter neither affecting nor being affected by the former. We further demonstrate that outside influence strongly affects China but not the other +3 and ASEAN countries. These findings survive robustness checks and suggest that the ASEANÂ +Â 3, as a region, may provide long-term diversification benefits to global investors and that the strengthening of the ASEANÂ +Â 3 regional cooperation framework may further buttress confidence in this region.

Keywords: Uncertainty; interdependencies; spillovers; ASEANÂ +Â 3; G6 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D80 F42 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1142/S0217590821410101

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