A semi-Markov model of the variability of power generation from renewable sources

Jacek Malinowski ()

Operations Research and Decisions, 2013, vol. 23, issue 2, 81-90

Abstract: The paper presents a new approach to modeling the variability of power generation from a renewable source such as wind or flowing water. The force of the power generating agent is assumed to change according to the semi-Markov process with finite state space. For the purpose of its construction, the range of possible values expressing the agent’s force is divided into a finite number of subintervals. It is natural to assume that the time during which the agent’s force remains within one such interval, and the probabilities of transitions to neighboring intervals depend to some extent on the agent’s earlier behavior. The model’s accuracy is determined by the number of subintervals used and the assumed degree to which the agent’s force depends on its history. This degree is expressed by the number of the most recently entered subintervals relevant to predicting the agent’s future behavior. According to the presupposed accuracy level, an appropriately complex state-space and a diagram of the inter-state transitions for the modeled process have been constructed. Subsequently, it is demonstrated how certain parameters of this process, related to forecasting power generation, can be calculated by means of the calculus of the Laplace transforms.

Keywords: renewable power generation; forecasting of environmental conditions; semi-Markov modeling; Laplace transform (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://ord.pwr.edu.pl/assets/papers_archive/1085%20-%20published.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wut:journl:v:2:y:2013:p:81-90:id:1085

DOI: 10.5277/ord130207

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Operations Research and Decisions from Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Adam Kasperski ().