Modelo Predictivo de los Determinantes del Cierre Empresarial de las MIPYMES en el Ecuador Período 2007-2016

Natalia Bermúdez Barrezueta and Ariana Bravo Matamoros

X-pedientes_Económicos, 2019, vol. 3, issue 5, 78-93

Abstract: MSMEs constitute a large part of the labor market and are an essential employment engine for the development of the economy. Due to its importance, in the present work some factors that affect the probability of business closure of these firms are analyzed. Using data provided by the Superintendency of Companies, Securities and Insurance for the period 2007-2016, the determinants that affect the probability of business closure are estimated using predictive models of binary dependent variable: Probit, Logit andComplementary log-log regression (Cloglog). Among the main findings of the research are that increasing financial leverage, reducing accounts receivable, invest higher levels in net assets and having higherlevels of profitability aresomeof thefactors that increase the life expectancy ofthecompanies. Finally, belongingto the region Sierra and havingmore years functioning in the market reduce de probability of bankruptcy.

Date: 2019
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