Dinámica de la tasa de interés, deflación y producción ante el shock del coronavirus en el marco de un modelo 'DSGE' neo-keynesiano para la economía ecuatoriana

Luis Peñafiel Chang

X-pedientes_Económicos, 2020, vol. 4, issue 10, 6-18

Abstract: This article aims to analyze the position of the monetary authority of Ecuador not to modify the interest rate to counteract, on the one hand, the unexpected drop in production and,on the other, the growing demand for liquidity from economic agents to make in the face of uncertainty due to the coronavirus. To do this, a neo-Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with adaptive expectations is developed. The results show that in the face of the coronavirus shock or the increase in monetary demand, both result in a drop in production and price levels, which is why the model suggests the disposition of the monetary authority to lower the interest rate. However, it is the uncertainty of the persistence of the shocks that will determine whether the monetary authority will be willing to lower interest rates to continue with its "hard" policy of aversion to inflation that it has maintained for the last 15 years.

Date: 2020
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