Why don't Firms Hire Young Workers during Recessions? A Replication of Forsythe (The Economic Journal, 2022)

Jonathan Créchet, Jing Cui, Barbara Sadaba and Antoine Sawyer

Journal of Comments and Replications in Economics (JCRE), 2025, vol. 4, No 2025-4, 30 pages

Abstract: We replicate results of Forsythe (2022) studying the cyclicality of individuals' labor market transitions conditional on their experience. Using Current Population Survey (CPS) data and state-level variations in the unemployment rate, this paper shows that the hiring probability of youths is more sensitive to business-cycle conditions than for experienced individuals. We replicate the key results in this paper by reconstructing the dataset using the IPUMS-CPS database (Flood et al. (2020)) and recoding the main regressions from scratch. We also conduct a robustness replicability analysis and show that the paper's main results are robust in terms of statistical significance to (i) extending the sample period from 1994-2014 to 1994-2019 and (ii) using metropolitan statistical area (MSA) level unemployment variation instead of state-level variation. These extensions reduce the magnitude of the main effects of interest, but the paper's key conclusions are unaffected.

Keywords: Worker flows; Business cycles; Life cycle (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E24 J63 J64 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zbw:jcreco:330825

DOI: 10.18718/81781.43

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