PREDICTION OF CARBON EMISSIONS FROM TRANSPORTATION IN CHINA BASED ON THE ARIMA-LSTM-BP COMBINED MODEL

Sheng Kai () and Ye Shanli
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Sheng Kai: School of Science, Zhejiang University of Science and Technology, Hangzhou 310023, China
Ye Shanli: School of Science, Zhejiang University of Science and Technology, Hangzhou 310023, China

Science Heritage Journal (GWS), 2024, vol. 8, issue 1, 13-21

Abstract: Transportation is not only a significant force in promoting economic and social development but also one of the primary industries that consume energy and emit greenhouse gas emissions. In order to achieve China’s overall goal of reaching the carbon peak by 2030, this paper selects six influencing factors, such as population, GDP and urbanization rate, and proposes a combined prediction model based on ARIMA-LSTM-BP, which predicts transportation carbon emissions in China from 2022 to 2050 under three scenarios of low carbon, benchmark and high carbon. The results show that the peak emissions of transportation in low-carbon, benchmark and high-carbon scenarios are 1624.7732 million tons, 1478.1694 million tons and 1367.5417 million tons, respectively, reaching the peak in 2031, 2034 and 2039. It can be seen that in China, the transportation industry alone cannot achieve the goal of reaching the peak by 2030, and more measures need to be taken to achieve the carbon peak of the transportation industry as soon as possible.

Keywords: Carbon emission prediction; combination model; transportation industry; scenario analysis method (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zib:zbngws:v:8:y:2024:i:1:p:13-21

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