FORECASTING MALAYSIAN ONION IMPORTS USING A MOVING AVERAGE MODEL AND STRATEGIES TO OVERCOME RELIANCE ON A FULLY IMPORTED SUPPLY

Suhana Safari (), Wan Rozita Wan Engah, Nor Hazlina Mat Sa'at, Nur Syafini Ghazali, Mohamed Hafeifi Basir and Suhanna Ahmad
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Suhana Safari: Socioeconomic, Market Intelligence and Agribusiness Research Centre, Malaysian Agriculture Research and Development Institute (MARDI)
Wan Rozita Wan Engah: Horticulture Research Centre, Malaysian Agriculture and Development Institute
Nor Hazlina Mat Sa'at: Horticulture Research Centre, Malaysian Agriculture and Development Institute
Nur Syafini Ghazali: Horticulture Research Centre, Malaysian Agriculture and Development Institute
Mohamed Hafeifi Basir: Horticulture Research Centre, Malaysian Agriculture and Development Institute
Suhanna Ahmad: Horticulture Research Centre, Malaysian Agriculture and Development Institute

Reviews in Food and Agriculture (RFNA), 2024, vol. 5, issue 2, 97-101

Abstract: Since the 1990s, Malaysia has relied entirely on importing fresh onions—including large, small, and garlic varieties—to meet local demand, given the limited domestic production of green onions. A major supply disruption occurred in 2020 when Indian onion exports, crucial for Malaysia, were halted due to a severe flood in India. This study aims to forecast the impact of lifting the export bans from India in May 2024 on Malaysian onion imports over the subsequent four months. Using the moving average method for analysis, results indicated a 12.9% decrease in imports, from 47,000 Mt to 42,000 Mt. This decline mirrors trends observed over the past three years, with lower imports typically during year end. The forecasting model demonstrated strong performance, with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 9.7% and a Mean Squared Error (MSE) of 29,079,653; both suggesting accurate predictions. In response to these disruptions, the Malaysian Agricultural Research and Development Institute (MARDI) has initiated local cultivation efforts to reduce import dependency. These measures aim to enhance domestic production and mitigate risks associated with global supply chain vulnerabilities.

Keywords: Forecasting; Malaysian Demand; Shallot Estimate; Mardi’s Farming Model; Import Supply (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:zib:zbrfna:v:5:y:2024:i:2:p:97-101

DOI: 10.26480/rfna.02.2024.97.101

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