Notes on Forecasting Nominal Equilibrium Exchange Rates of PLN Against USD

Władysław Milo () and Magdalena Rutkowska ()
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Władysław Milo: University of Lodz, Poland
Magdalena Rutkowska: University of Lodz, Poland

Chapter 9 in Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica nr 192/2005 - Issues in Modeling, Forecasting and Decision-Making in Financial Markets, 2005, vol. 192, pp 145-156 from University of Lodz

Abstract: Exchange rate is one of the most important prices in an open economy. For theoretical and practical reasons it is useful to calculate an equilibrium level of exchange rate. There is a wide range of theories explaining exchange rate determinants. This article presents determinants of exchange rates derived from monetary theory and balance of payments theory. Upon these fundamental economic theories and defining different definitions of equilibrium we have calculated predictors of nominal exchange rate of PLN against USD. We have also computed equilibrium level of this exchange rate. Empirical results have shown that the theoretical equilibrium values do not statistically significantly differ on the method used in equilibrium computations and they are similar to the empirical trajectory of PLN/USD in the period 1995-2003.

Keywords: Exchange rates; Equilibrium; Forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C01 E02 F00 G00 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2005
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