Quantitative crisis analysis: identifying and defining imbalances

Olena Nieizviestna, Natalia Ivanova, Viktoriia Koverza, Volodymyr Kotkovskyi and Yevhenii Tryhubchenko
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Olena Nieizviestna: Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade
Natalia Ivanova: Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade
Viktoriia Koverza: Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade
Volodymyr Kotkovskyi: National University "Odessa Law Academy"
Yevhenii Tryhubchenko: Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade

Chapter 2 in Econometric modeling of managerial decisions at the macro and micro levels, 2021, pp 22-43 from PC TECHNOLOGY CENTER

Abstract: Dedicated to the study of the possibility of using quantitative analysis tools to determine macroeconomic imbalances as potential harbingers of the spread of the crisis. It is noted that in modern conditions of a rapid course of crisis situations, it is advisable to use nonlinear models, an example of which is nonparametric models based on the signaling approach, providing for the use of macroindicators (indicators) characterizing the economy's resistance to crises. To predict the emergence of negative trends in the development of the economy in the future, the authors developed and proposed for use a regression model with performance indicators, which reflects the dependence of the probability of the onset of the period of "crisis" on a number of economic indicators and carried out its approbation for the Ukrainian economy. Forecasting results for 2021–2022 They made it possible to determine the deviations of the Ukrainian economy from the trajectory of sustainable development. The authors indicated the corrective measures of economic policy on the part of the macroeconomic regulation authorities in order to suspend the inertial development of the forecast situation.

Keywords: Crisis; crisis phenomena; symptoms of crisis phenomena; causes of crisis phenomena; factors of crisis phenomena; channels of transmission of crisis phenomena; macroeconomic imbalances; indicator for determining macroeconomic imbalances; signal approach; regression model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:baq:pcchap:978-617-7319-37-4-ch2

DOI: 10.15587/978-617-7319-37-4.ch2

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