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Globalisation and inflation dynamics in Asia and the Pacific

Bank for International Settlements

No 70 in BIS Papers from Bank for International Settlements

Abstract: The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) organised a research workshop on globalisation and inflation dynamics in Asia and the Pacific on June 18-19 in Hong Kong SAR. The topic was endorsed by the Asian Consultative Council in February 2012 as the new monetary stability research theme for the two-year research programme of the BIS Representative Office for Asia and the Pacific. The conference venue was provided by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. The goal of the event was to bring together researchers and policymakers to present the latest developments in the research area of globalisation and inflation. The workshop also helped to sharpen the focus on the key aspects of this topic in the research programme of the BIS Asian office going forward. There were 34 participants, including academics, researchers and policymakers from central banks and international organisations from the Asia-Pacific region, Europe and the United States. The workshop presentations revolved around five key themes: economic globalisation and inflation dynamics in the region; financial globalisation and its impact on exchange rate passthrough to inflation; the importance of commodity price swings; the difficulties measuring economic slack in small, open economies; and understanding how to interpret inflation expectation data from different sources. Emphasis was put on the changing economic and financial environment and the implications for monetary policymaking. In addition to presentations of research papers, the workshop included two high-level policy panel discussions focused on monetary policy challenges in the Asia-Pacific region. There was a broad recognition among the central bankers and academics of the importance of this topic for Asia and the Pacific. The discussions identified various theoretical channels through which global developments influence domestic inflation dynamics. In addition to the theoretical channels, there were questions about how labour market dynamics in Asia, especially in China, are spilling over to the region and elsewhere, and how new supply chain relationships in the region can amplify the transmission of inflation shocks. Several presenters noted the deep conceptual and empirical challenges related to the measurement of economic slack in dynamic, open economies of the type in Asia. The event also cast new light on the debate on how monetary policy should respond to commodity price swings. This volume is a collection of presentations during the workshop.

Date: 2013 Written 2013-02
ISBN: 92-9131-914-7
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Chapters in this book:

Measuring economic slack in emerging Asian economies , pp 1-2 Downloads
Dong He
Moving towards probability forecasting , pp 3-8 Downloads
Shaun Vahey and Elizabeth Wakerly
Chronic deflation in Japan , pp 9-19 Downloads
Kenji Nishizaki, Toshitaka Sekine, Yuichi Ueno and Yuko Kawai
How important are inflation expectations in driving Asian inflation? , pp 23-24 Downloads
Diwa Guinigundo
Forecast disagreement and the anchoring of inflation expectations in the Asia-Pacific Region , pp 25-40 Downloads
Pierre Siklos
How important are inflation expectations in driving Asian inflation? , pp 41-63 Downloads
Jun Il Kim and Jungick Lee
Understanding commodity price cycles in emerging Asia and their implications for monetary policy , pp 67-69 Downloads
Rhys Mendes
Commodity price movements and monetary policy in Asia , pp 71-77 Downloads
Changyong Rhee and Hangyong Lee
Theoretical notes on commodity prices and monetary policy , pp 79-90 Downloads
Paolo Pesenti
Global slack as a determinant of US inflation , pp 93-98 Downloads
Enrique Martinez-Garcia and Mark Wynne
Inflation and globalisation: a modelling perspective , pp 99-108 Downloads
Charles Engel
Globalisation of inflation and its implications for monetary policy , pp 111-112 Downloads
Sukhdave Singh
The globalisation of inflation: a view from the cross section , pp 113-118 Downloads
Raphael Auer and Philip Sauré
Inflation and financial globalisation , pp 119-128 Downloads
Michael Devereux
European crisis and its implications for global inflation dynamics , pp 131-135 Downloads
Athanasios Orphanides
East Asia and Australia monetary policy , pp 139-141 Downloads
Adam Cagliarini
The adjustment of China’s monetary policy stance in the face of global volatility , pp 143-148 Downloads
Wang Yu
Indonesia’s monetary policy: coping with volatile commodity prices and capital inflows , pp 149-159 Downloads
Perry Warjiyo
The impact of external shocks on inflation dynamics in CESEE , pp 161-170 Downloads
Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald
The future of inflation targeting? , pp 173-179 Downloads
Christopher McDermott
Property prices, inflation, and policy challenges in Hong Kong , pp 181-184 Downloads
Dong He
Monetary policy frameworks in Asia-Pacific: beyond inflation targeting , pp 185-187 Downloads
Sukhdave Singh

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