Annual assessment of the forecasts included in GEO

Filip Novotný

A chapter in CNB Global Economic Outlook - June 2019, 2019, pp 13-21 from Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department

Abstract: Every month, Global Economic Outlook (GEO) provides an overview of the latest economic forecasts issued by international institutions, selected central banks and Consensus Economics. With the benefit of hindsight, it can be said that the monitored institutions were mostly too optimistic with their economic outlooks for 2018. Their forecasts for GDP growth expected higher levels on average. Likewise, expected consumer price inflation was higher than the subsequent outcomes in most cases. At the same time, the outlooks for shortterm interest rates for the euro area were slightly overestimated, while those for rates in the USA were underestimated. As regards the exchange rates of the monitored currencies against the dollar, forecasters expected a stronger dollar for most currency pairs compared to what transpired. The crude oil price was also slightly underestimated in the forecasts on average over the entire assessment period. However, this was in line with the overshot expected inflation in some countries.

Date: 2019
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https://www.cnb.cz/export/sites/cnb/en/monetary-po ... 9/gev_2019_06_en.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Chapter: Annual assessment of the forecasts included in GEO (2022)
Chapter: Annual assessment of the forecasts included in GEO (2020)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cnb:ocpubc:geo2019/6

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